29 May

Pharmacists to protest setting up of e-portal to regulate medicine sales

Pharmacists to protest setting up of e-portal to regulate medicine sales

CHENNAI: On the occasion of their protest against the proposal of the central Ministry of Health to create an electronic portal to regulate the sale of medicines, pharmacists in Chennai, Madurai and Karur wear a black label on Tuesday. However, pharmacists have decided not to participate in the Gaza Strip called by the All-India Organization of Chemicals and Drugs (AIOCD) Tuesday.
The administrative secretary of Tamil Nadu, the Association of Chemists and Pharmacists T Natarajan, who led the annual general meeting on Sunday, said: “We are not going to close pharmacies on Tuesday, Secretary of State. Will submit a memorandum to the Central Health Ministry says that the establishment of an electronic portal is not viable for Tamil Nadu chemists. ”
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It is useless to protest against electronic portals and yes, as indicated, certain issues should be addressed in the management of rural areas and so that the layout of the facility may be asked.
There are 5,000 pharmacies in Chennai, of which about 1,000 are managed by companies. The remaining 4,000 pharmacies are run by people and are represented by the Druggists and Association (District of Madras). Natarajan, who is also the general secretary of the district association of Madras, said: “The establishment of an electronic portal to regulate the sale of medicines is not possible without the great modernization of infrastructure, certainly not possible in rural areas , Since there is no Internet access. ”
According to the proposal, an autonomous body will develop and maintain the electronic platform in which manufacturers of medicines, wholesalers, distributors, wholesalers, pharmacies and authorized electronic pharmacies must register.

29 May

Results of Juno mission challenge our understanding of Jupiter

Results of Juno mission challenge our understanding of Jupiter

Results of Juno mission challenge our understanding of Jupiter

Ten months after their arrival on Jupiter, Juno’s mission to NASA began to provide – forcing scientists to evaluate how they felt about the giant planet. Juno’s earliest discoveries, published in Science, indicate that many aspects of Jupiter’s expectations defied – including the strength of its magnetic field, the shape of its nucleus, the distribution of ammonia, and time at its poles. This is certainly an exciting time to be a Jupiter scientist.

Juno arrived in Jupiter in July 2016 and began a long orbit loop that has moved away from the planet before retiring to its first scientific (perijove) on August 27. That is the fugitive collection that the new studies are based on. Today, despite the initial problems with the Juno engine and spacecraft software, the mission moved to a regular pattern of about 53.5 days – the sixth overview of May 19, the seventh is the 11th July.
Mysteries at the bottom

One of Juno’s main strengths is his ability to monitor roofing clouds to study the gas below, such as ammonia-forming clouds. The flow of ammonia forms the distinctive characteristics of Jupiter. It was expected that the gas would mix well, or soaked, in the highest cloud. This idea has turned upside down – the concentration of ammonia is much less than expected.

In an intriguing way, a large part of the ammonia is concentrated in an equatorial plume, from the depth of ceilings cloud Jupiter due to powerful drilling force. Scientists compare this to Earth’s Hadley cell, with dredge ammonia plumes hundreds of miles below.

We know that ammonia is upgraded to Jupiter’s equator for a while, but we did not know how deep this column is. However, it is important to remember that this is just the location on Jupiter and terrestrial infrared observations suggest that the pen may not be as strong elsewhere in the Jupiter equator, but could be uneven. Only with more périvove passes, we begin to understand the strange dynamics of the tropics of Jupiter.

We have never been able to see that before, even the first observations of Juno microwave instruments provide a lot of new ideas. These show that the band structure we see on the surface is really just the tip of the iceberg – Jupiter exhibits bands up to 350 km. It is much deeper than Jupiter’s generally considered “time layer” in the top ten kilometers. On the other hand, this structure is not the same as the bottom – which varies with depth, indicating a large and complex traffic pattern.

Gravity and magnetic fields

Surprises do not end here. Juno can deepen the planet by controlling small adjustments to the orbit of the spacecraft with the gravity field of Jupiter’s interior. Ultimately, these will be used to evaluate the core of Jupiter, although this can not be done in a single pass of perijove. Most scientists believe that the planet has a dense nucleus composed of ten times the Earth’s mass of heavier elements and occupies a small fraction of the radius. But the new measurements are incompatible with any previous model – perhaps suggesting a “spongy” nucleus scattered in the middle of the Jupiter radius.

In fact, the interior of Jupiter seems to be anything but uniform. Remember that scientists have spent years developing models of the interior of Jupiter on the basis of scattered data taken over great distances. Juno is testing these models to the extreme because he flies so close.

Jupiter has the most intense planetary magnetic field in the solar system, there is a buildup of wind, where the solar wind (known as the name of shock arc) slows down. Juno first crossed this region and in the Jovian magnetosphere June 24th. At its closest approach, Jupiter’s magnetic field strength was twice as strong as any predicted and much more irregular model.

29 May

Chinese space telescope to observe ‘big eaters’

Chinese space telescope to observe ‘big eaters’

Chinese space telescope to observe ‘big eaters’

China’s new space telescope will take into account many mysteries of the universe, including “big eaters” – active nuclei of galaxies to the farthest reaches of the universe. Scientists have discovered that almost all galaxies have a black hole with a mass of several million supermassiform to several billion times that of the Sun in the center. With its strong gravitational pull, supermassive black holes gobble up surrounding gas and dust, Xinhua news agency reported.
When a black hole overflows too much, the excess material becomes two jet stream perpendicular to the accretion disk of the black hole, which is like a greedy with an inflated abdomen. The jet stream and the accretion disk of the black hole generators strong enough supermassive x-rays to billion light-years travel. These galaxies have very bright nuclei – so bright that the central region may be brighter than the remaining galaxy. Scientists call them active galactic nuclei.

The hard X-ray modulation of the telescope (HXMT), developed by Chinese scientists, will observe some active galactic nuclei. “Since the active nuclei of galaxies are very far from Earth, our telescope can only detect the brightest,” said Zhang Shuangnan, senior scientist and director of HXMT key Particle Astrophysics Laboratory of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CASO) . On Monday. The great dining rooms are full of mysteries. Scientists have discovered that the double-jet phenomenon is very common in galaxies with active galactic nuclei, but I do not understand why super-massive black holes can not cover any matter that falls into them.
Black holes are very different black holes of stellar mass, which form when the collapse of very massive stars at the end of their life cycle. Scientists still do not know how to form supermassive black holes and grow, which is a key to understanding the evolution of galaxies. Observing HXMT should help scientists see the central zone near the horizon of events supermassive black holes in the center of active galaxies and gather information on the extremely strong gravitational fields, Zhang added.

29 May

NASA discovers yet another mode of ice loss in Greenland

NASA discovers yet another mode of ice loss in Greenland

NASA discovers yet another mode of ice loss in Greenland

A new study by three NASA scientists found another cause of glacial collapse. The discovery suggests that ice on the Rink glacier, Greenland, does not rely only on faster than usual, glided through the interior of the glacier into a gigantic wave. This is similar to a heated heater slides out of its plastic housing.

The initial objective of the study, to accurately track the mass loss of an ice melting glacier by horizontal motion of a GPS sensor, led to this discovery. The team used single sensor data on the Greenland GPS network (GNET), located at the bottom of the rock beside the Rink glacier.

The researchers looked at the wave pattern in GPS data for 2010, the second hottest recorded in Greenland. Although they do not quantify the exact size and speed of the wave in the year 2010, the GPS data movement patterns indicate that it must have been less than the 2012 wavelength, but similar in speed.

Scientists theorize that previously known processes have been combined for mass movements so quickly. The huge volume of water lubricates the base of the glacier, allowing it to move faster, and the lateral margins softened as the glacier flows into rock or stationary ice. These changes have allowed the ice to slide downstream so quickly that the ice later inside the interior could not be maintained.

“We know for certain that the triggering mechanism was the melting of the surface of snow and ice, but we do not fully understand the complex processes that generate solitary waves,” said JPL scientist Surendra Adhikari, who led the study according to The space agency, the wave was not detected by the usual methods. The usual method is to measure glaciers of thinning with an air radar.

Pista is one of Greenland’s main outlets in the ocean, which drain some 11 billion tonnes of ice per year. However, during the summer of 2012, it lost 6 million million additional pieces in the form of a solitary wave. The loss of long pulse mass, called a solitary wave, is the new discovery. This could increase the potential for ice loss in Greenland supported as the climate warms up.
The study, published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, describes the new discovery in detail.

29 May

NASA Lunar observation craft hit by meteoroid

NASA Lunar observation craft hit by meteoroid

NASA Lunar observation craft hit by meteoroid

In an extremely unlikely sequence of events, a camera on a NASA machine equipped with three cameras was struck by a meteorologist compiling an image, researchers determined. The Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter called RSO was reached in 2014.
The researchers noticed that something was wrong when the ship taking pictures of the surface of the moon sent a strange image to the earth. The spacecraft is in orbit, so it takes images from one line at a time to adjust the motion and uses thousands of images online to compile a complete image.
The strange image that the RPG has returned to Earth after being struck by a meteorologist. Photo: NASA
The images are usually very detailed and high quality, so when the researchers got the unusual picture above, they began to work on what went wrong. Altering the image can be seen in light waves of the photo that are more serious in the center of the photo.
The researchers determined that the camera used to take the picture would be affected by something directly, possibly a meteorologist, when taking the photo. The researchers tested the cameras under turbulent conditions to ensure that take-off and launch would not have any detrimental effect on them. Using the same simulation used to test the cameras before takeoff, they have been tested under different conditions to try to reproduce the photo they had received from space, according to NASA.
A bullet hole – a small stone of the universe passed through our solar system. Glad to have lost his helmet. Pic.twitter.com/iBHFVfp1p8
– Chris Hadfield (@ Cmdr_Hadfield) April 29, 2013
What is a météoroute?
A meteorologist is about any piece of rock or iron that travels through space. They are smaller than asteroids and are generally small pieces that have broken the larger masses. Moons can also come off sometimes. When a meteorologist enters the atmosphere and breaks from Earth, it is called a meteor star or shot. They usually burn in the atmosphere, but if they do not, and just land on Earth, they are called meteorites.
This helped them determine the size of the meteorologist who also hit. He finally came to the conclusion that he was likely to size his head about half a hairpin and travel faster than a bullet is.
This event is so rare because the work only takes images in period brightness and even if it exceeds ten percent of that time image capture, according to Mark Robinson, principal investigator at the loom.
The RSO is still in space orbiting and gathering information because the event did not cause potential damage to the spacecraft or hindered it beyond the occasional photographic disturbance function.
“Given that the impact has not presented any technical problem to the health and safety of the instrument, the team only announce this as a fascinating example of how you can use the engineering data unexpectedly,” said John Keller, LRO A science project, according to NASA.
In 2013, an astronaut of the International Space Station Twitter a photo of the station a small hole in one of the solar panels of the station. The “bullet hole” that Canadian astronaut Chris Hadfield called was caused by a small meteor.
The ISS can navigate off the path of large asteroids if necessary, but we expect it to be hit with small space debris every few months, to Space.com a NASA spokesman. NASA scientists also spend time hunting large pieces of debris so that the ISS can prepare or move in a large amount of time if needed.

29 May

World’s first infrared telescope to decode universe mysteries

World's first infrared telescope to decode universe mysteries

World’s first infrared telescope to decode universe mysteries

The largest optical and infrared telescope in the world is being built in Chile, which will help scientists understand the inner workings of the universe.

With a primary mirror of 39 meters in diameter, the European Southern Observatory (ESO) builds Extremely Large Telescope (ELT).

Unlike any before, ELT is designed to be an adaptive telescope and has the ability to set atmospheric turbulence by taking the engineering telescope to a new level.

The future giant telescope installed in the year 2024 was built on the top of Cerro Armazones, a mountain peak 3046 meters in Chile.

Scientists at Oxford University play a key role in the project and are responsible for the design and construction of the spectrograph; “HARMONI”, an instrument designed to take pictures simultaneously 4000, each of a slightly different color.

The visible and near-infrared adaptive optics instrument operates the telescope to provide very sharp images.

“HARMONI” will allow scientists to form a more detailed picture of the formation and evolution of objects in the universe.

This will help researchers see everything from planets to our own solar system and stars in our own galaxy and nearby, with unprecedented depth and precision, formation and evolution of galaxies that have never been observed before.

“The ELT is a major step forward in capability, and that means we will use to find many interesting things about the universe that we do not have knowledge of today,” said Niranjan Thatte, principal investigator of ‘HARMONI’ and professor of astrophysics In the physics department of Oxford.

“This is the element of” the exploration of the unknown “that most excites me about the ELT. It will be an engineering piece, and its size and light weight will harm all the other telescopes we have built so far,” said Thatte.

“ELTs produce discoveries that we simply can not imagine today and certainly inspire many people in the world to think about science, technology and our place in the universe,” said Tim DE Zeeuw, CEO of ESO.

08 May

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28 Apr

Internet of Things (IOT): A Vision, Future Directions and Challenges

 

Introduction

The Internet of Things represents a vision in which the Internet extends into the real world embracing every­day objects. Physical items are no longer disconnected from the virtual world, but can be controlled remotely and can act as physical access points to Internet services. An Internet of Things makes computing truly ubiquitous a concept initially put forward by Mark Weiser in the early 1990s. This development is opening up huge opportunities for both the economy and individuals. However, it also involves risks and undoub­tedly represents an immense tech­nical and social challenge.

The Internet of Things vision is grounded in the belief that the steady advances in microelectronics, com­munications and information tech­nology we have witnessed in recent years will continue into the fore­seeable future. In fact, due to their diminishing size, constantly falling price and declining energy consump­tion – processors, communications modules and other electronic com­ponents are being increasingly inte­grated into everyday objects today. ‘Smart’ objects play a key role in the Internet of Things vision, since embedded communication and infor­mation technology would have the potential to revolutionize the utility of these objects. Using sensors, they are able to perceive their context, and via built-in networking capabilities they would be able to communicate with each other, access Internet services and interact with people. ‘Digitally upgrading’ conventional object in this way enhances their physical function by adding the capabilities of digital objects, thus generating substantial added value. Forerunners of this development are already apparent today—more and more devices such as sewing machi­nes, exercise bikes, electric toothbru­shes, washing machines, electricity meters and photocopiers a re’being
‘computerized’ and equipped with network interfaces.

In other application domains, Internet connectivity of everyday objects can be used to remotely deter­mine their state so that information systems can collect up-to-date infor­mation on physical objects and processes. This enables many aspects

of the real world to be ‘observed’ at a previously unattained level of detail and at negligible cost. This would not only allow for a better understanding of the underlying processes, but also far more efficient control and mana­gement . The ability to react to events in the physical world in an automatic, rapid and informed manner not only

Manufacturing Quick response to fluctuations in demand; maximized operational efficiency, safety and reliability, using smart sensors and digital control systems. Enhanced agility and flexibility, reduced energy consumption and carbon footprint.
Retail Stock-out prevention through connected and intelligent supply chains. Ability to predict consumer behaviour and trends, using data from video surveillance cameras, social media, internet and mobile device usage.
Supply Chain Real-time tracking of parts and raw materials, which Reduced working capital requirements, improved efficie-
helps organisations preempt problems, address demand fluctuations and efficiently manage all stages of manu­facturing. ncies and avoidance of dis­ruptions in manufacturing.
Infrastructure Smart lighting, water, power, fire, cooling, alarms and structural health systems. Environmental benefits and significant cost savings with better utilization of resources and preventive maintenance of critical systems.
Oil and Gas Smart components. Reduced operating casts and fuel consumption.
Insurance Innovative services such as pay-as-you-go insurance. Significant cost savings for both insurers and consumers.
Utilities Smart grids and meters. More responsive and reliable services; significant cost savings for both utilities and consumers resulting from demand-based and dynamic pricing features.
Source : Ericsson, M2M Magazine 2013, Zebra Consulting/Forester Research, IBM, McKinsey & Co. Data informed, ZDNet.

opens up new opportunities for deal­ing with complex or critical situa­tions, but also enables a wide variety of business processes to be optimized. The real-time interpretation of data from the physical world will most likely lead to the introduction of various novel business services and may deliver substantial economic and social benefits. The use of the word ‘Internet’ in the catchy term ‘Internet of Things’ which stands for the vision outlined above can be seen as either simply a metaphor—in the same way that people use the Web today, things will soon also communicate with each other, use services, provide data and thus generate added value—or it can be interpreted in a stricter tech­nical sense, postulating that an IP protocol stack will be used by smart things (or at least by the ‘proxies’, their representatives on the network).

Getting IoT Ready

Preparing the lowest layers of technology for the horizontal nature of the IoT requires manufacturers to deliver on the most fundamental challenges, including:

  • Connectivity : There will not be one connectivity standard that ‘wins’ over the others. There will be a wide variety of wired and wireless standards as well as proprietary implementations used to connect the things in the IoT. The challenge is getting the connectivity standards to talk to one another with one common worldwide data currency.
  • Power Management : More

things within the IoT will be battery powered or use energy harvesting to be more portable and self-sustaining. Line- powered equipment will need to be more energy efficient. The challenge is making it easy to add power management to these devices and equipment. Wireless charging will incorporate con­nectivity with charge manage­ment.

  • Security : With the amount of data being sent within the IoT, security is a must. Built-in hard­ware security and use of existing connectivity security protocols is essential to secure the IoT. Another challenge is simply educating consumers to use the security that is integrated into their devices.
  • Complexity : Manufacturers are looking to add connectivity to devices and equipment that has never been connected before to become part of the IoT. Ease of design and development is essential to get more things con­nected especially when typical RF programming is complex. Additionally, the average con­sumer needs to be able to set up and use their devices without a technical background.
  • Rapid Evolution : The IoT is constantly changing and evolv­ing. More devices are being added every day and the indus­try is still in its nascent stage. The challenge facing the industry is the unknown devices, unknown applications, unknown use cases. Given this, there needs to be flexibility in all facets of deve­lopment. Processors and micro­controllers that range from 16- 1500 MEIz to address the full spectrum of applications from a microcontroller (MCU) in a small, energy-harvested wireless sensor node to high-performance, multi-core processors for IoT infrastructure. A wide variety of wired and wireless connectivity technologies are needed to meet the various needs of the market. Last, a wide selection of sensors, mixed-signal and power-mana­gement technologies are required to provide the user interface to the IoT and energy-friendly designs

Compelling Benefits of IoT

IoT offers compelling business

benefits and value that organizations

cannot afford to ignore including cost

savings, improved revenues and

opportunities to innovate.

  • Cost Savings : Costs can be reduced through improved asset utilization, process efficiencies and productivity. Customers and organizations can benefit from improved asset utilization (g smart meters that eliminate manual meter readings) and service improvements (e.g., remote monitoring of patients in clinical settings). General Electric has estimated that if intelligent machines and analytics caused even a tiny reduction in fuel, capital expenditures and ineffi­ciencies, it would result in billions of dollars in cost savings.
  • Improved Asset Utilization

With improved tracking of asse: (machinery, equipment, took etc.) using sensors and connect vity, businesses can benefit fror real-time insights and visibility into their assets and suppL chains. For instance, they coul: more easily locate assets and rur preventive maintenance on crit- cal pieces of infrastructure an; machinery to improve through put and utilization.

  • Efficient Processes : Organiza­tions can use real-time opera­tional insights to make smarter business decisions and reduct operating costs. They can use real-time data from sensors an: actuators to monitor and improve process efficiency, reduce energ. costs and minimize human inter­vention.
  • Improved Productivity : Pro­ductivity is a critical parameter that affects the profitability or any organization. IoT improver organizational productivity h offering employees just-in-tirr training, reducing the mismatc: of required available skill: and improving labour efficiency

Future of IoT

The acceleration of IoT from loft concept to reality is predicated or the projected exponential growth c: smart devices and the confluence or low-cost infrastructure, connectivity and data. Declining device costs widespread and pervasive connecti­vity, and an ever-increasing focus or operational efficiency and producti­vity is leading to wide deployment or IoT splutions. In a 2012 survey b Zebra Consulting and Forester, only 15% of organizations had an IoT solution in place, but more than hah (53%) had plans to implement one ir. the next two years, and an additional 14% planned to implement in the next two to five years. Roughly 21’c of respondents from the transporta­tion and logistics sector indicated tha: an IoT solution was already in place.

  • Billions of Smart Devices are Becoming Connected : The num­ber of connected smart devices is exploding, with 50 billion devi­ces possible by 2020. Similarly machine-to-machine (M2M connections which are a key pan of the fabric of IoT are also or

PD/April/2016/98         “Hard work without talent is a shame, but talent without hard work is a tragedy.”

28 Apr

Industrial Growth in India : The Divergent Views

The divergent views emerged regarding the growth of industrial sector in India. Industrial growth measured by the Central Statistics Office always differs with the statistics revealed by Index of Industrial Production (IIP) and Annual Survey of Industries. Thus, for a common man, it is extremely difficult to reach at a meaningful conclusion. Introduction of new methodology for the estimation of national income has made the situation’ more complex and complicated. The controversy over the new GDP series refuses to die down. Going by the latest estimates, the non-farm sector grew an impressive 9.2 per cent in the third quarter of 2015-16. One would be forgiven for feeling confused, but if the economy was truly growing at such breathtaking speed, what explains the growing clamour for a fiscal stimulus which is being demanded by the chieftains of industrial sector. The confusion over the numbers is because of the growing chasm between the Central Statistical Office’s GDP estimates and other key economic indicators which suggest sluggish growth at best. The greatest disconnect lies in the estimates of industrial growth.

According to CSO, industry grew at a scorching pace of 8-9 per cent in the third quarter (October to December 2015), with manufacturing sector clocking 12-6 per cent growth. In comparison, the index of Industrial Production (IIP) grew a mere 1-5 per cent, with manufacturing sector registering growth of only 0-9 per cent. Both of these figures are nowhere near the GDP number. The diver­gence between the two estimates is truly confounding. To be fair, there are many reasons for the divergent trends—

  • IIP measures volume growth, while GDP measures growth in value added.
  • The base years of the two indicators are different. The base year for GDP estimates is 2011-12, while the base year for IIP is 2004-05.
  • Regarding the estimation of GDP the manufacturing sector has two components. The first component is the corporate data which is based on advanced filing of companies in stock exchanges, while the second non-corporate component is based on IIP, and a weighted average of that is considered. Companies account for 65 per cent of manufacturing.
  • Annual Survey of Industries data, however, does not capture unregistered entities and hence there were some differences in the numbers between the GDP data and ASI data. Otherwise, ASI is a compre­hensive measure of industrial growth as it covers both registered small and registered medium indus­tries where all units employing at least 10 workers and using power, or 20 workers and not using power are covered.
  • The CSO uses the Ministry of Corporate Affairs 21 database and the ASI estimates to arrive at estimate of gross value added.
  • The ASI data comes with a lag of two years whih GDP estimates are on quarterly basis.

But considering the backdrop of growing concerns o: hollowing out of domestic manufacturing, the GD” numbers are extraordinarily high.

  • The IIP is a pure physical ‘volume’-based measure csr production. It does not adequately reflect the ‘value that is added by virtue of quality improvements higher production efficiencies, or marketing an: branding innovations.
  • The new series of national accounts is seen as providing more robust estimates of gross value addition happening, taking into account the value cc output less the value of inputs used in a particular production process. On the other hand, the IIP, whic: is simply a production volume indicator, might be understating the extent of value-added growth ir manufacturing.

CONFOUNDING SIGNS                      % growth •Note: Gross value added has been estimated on the basis of quarterly results of ove- 1000 companies

Source: Mospi, Capitaline                                            Compiled by BS Research Bures.

In order to arrive at a comparable estimate of thr first component i.e, the corporate sector’s growth per­formance, Business Standard estimated gross value adder for over 1,000 companies. Gross Value Added (GVA : estimated as profits minus interest payments pi_ depreciation and compensation to employees.

According to this estimate, GVA grew 3.8 per cerr over the April to December 2015 period. Value added ha grown even though sales have gone down because prot:- have grown due to the declining input (commodity) cos: and higher wages and depreciation. By comparison, CSC *

 

 

 

‘The difference between ordinary and extraordinary is that little extra.”

22 Apr

Concerns about Current State of Indian Economy: An Analysis —Shrawan Kumar Singh ‘ ■” t

What does good economic health look like ? Many are expressing con­cerns about the state of the Indian economy. Why doesn’t something ‘feel’ right ? The rising costs of Indian democracy will be in economic terms: direct financial cost of elections and non-functioning of Parliament, the opportunity cost manifested in time lost in productive activity undermin­ing the demographic dividend and capital investment. For analytical convenience, we will discuss the current state of Indian economy under following heads:

Macro-economic Situation

There is a complex macro- economic challenge on the horizon. Conditions in the economy are now quite daunting. The populists always propose simple solutions to every­thing without recognizing the com­plexity. According to Raghuram Rajan, ‘we are today in the world of populism; who always have simple, clear and absolute wrong solutions to everything’. He maintained that distorting price in a significant way eventually leads to misallocation of resources and hurts the economy in the long term. Benign oil prices are not an occasion for complacency. Marginal policy adjust­ments will not work. Bold actions are required. India’s macro-economic fundamentals are improving and rupee is resilient against its peers, but sluggishness in domestic demand and private investment call for higher public investment at a time when the government is committed to fiscal consolidation. Public investment financed by the government’s own or borrowed resources do not provide an adequate answer to the macro- economic problem of relatively low investment.

Regardless of the causes, the weak exports performance has been a drag on growth. This drag has been about 1*0 percentage point. Macro- economic stability relies immensely on policy credibility and that would

PD/April/2016/91

 

be the platform on which the growth will be built to sustain the country for many years to come. Raghuram Rajan is of the view that macroeconomic stability during the global turmoil cannot be risked and the government and RBI should continue to bring down inflation.

Inflation and Composition of Price Rise

Stabilising inflation became the top macro objective, ahead of growth. And both monetary and fiscal policies remained geared to compressing demand and tame CPI inflation, the new monetary policy anchor. Infla­tion rates have fallen but remain among the highest in the major economies. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) remains at 5-61 per cent (combined) in December 2015. CPI (Rural) and CPI (Urban) was 6-32 per cent and 4-73 per cent respectively in the same month. Consumer Food Price Index, however, was a bit higher at 6-40 per cent for the same period. The Wholesale Price Index (WPI), which measures changes in producer prices, has declined by eight percentage points. The GDP deflator, which is used to convert nominal to real GDP, reflects roughly 70 per cent of the WPI and 30 per cent of the CPI.

Inflation has continued to moderate steadily. However, the spectre of rising prices has returned to haunt the Reserve Bank of India, which raised its inflation projection to about 5% for the year ending March 2017, lower than 5-61% estimated in December 2015.

Growth and its Pattern

India is not growing as it should. The economy remains on shaky ground. GDP growth, aided by a sharp fall in oil prices, was officially estimated around 7 per cent in 2015. Going ahead in 2016-17, growth is expected to strengthen gradually, RBI
has projected the gross value added (GVA) growth for the next fiscal at 7-6 per cent.

The hope for a substantial growth in 2016-17 revolves around the beha­viour of private corporate investment or private investment in general. There are no easy policy choices in India. Higher growth will be rewar­ded only if it doesn’t come at the altar of macroeconomic stability. The pure economic drivers of growth remain the same : investment in public infra­structure, private equipment and machi­nery, and human capital, along with innovation and adaptation to improve the efficiency of resource use and what economists call ‘total factor productivity’. The constraints on India’s growth are weak infrastructure, a vulnerability to inflation, regulatory complexity and policy uncertainty. If these are addressed, the growth outlook would improve. Nirvikar Singh has sugges­ted that “improvements in organisa­tional efficiency, in both the private and public sectors are a vital and possibly underestimated factor for future Indian growth”.

In a situation when private investment is not forthcoming, public investment has a “Vole not only as a source of aggregate demand but also as catalyst. This it does by anchoring profit expectations. Private invest­ment is based on expectations of profit. Profit expectations, far from being known with certainty, are highly subjective. They are based on anticipations of the future state of the economy about which little is known. However, private investors need to have an idea of it as demand for their products depends upon the aggregate demand and this depends upon investment, both public and private. In the absence of public investment, each private investor must guess what the others are going to do. To use the pithy phrase of John Maynard Keynes, investors now end up ‘chasing each other’s tails’.